Comments on: Another Sunny Day http://www.joetaxpayer.com/another-sunny-day/ Financial Commentary For The Average Joe Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:56:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: JOE http://www.joetaxpayer.com/another-sunny-day/comment-page-1/#comment-131 JOE Sat, 22 Mar 2008 16:52:30 +0000 http://www.blog.joetaxpayer.com/archives/118#comment-131 I don’t expect the kind of price drop that we saw in processors and drive densities, just suggesting that there’s the crossover point, first when solar is cheaper than the most expensive source of power, then as prices drop due to economies of scale, we should get below the magic 6¢ cost of nuclear. We don’t need a 1000X cost savings, just 2-4X from where we are now. As always, thanks for visiting, your posts are always welcome.
Joe

]]> By: Augustine http://www.joetaxpayer.com/another-sunny-day/comment-page-1/#comment-130 Augustine Fri, 21 Mar 2008 21:36:48 +0000 http://www.blog.joetaxpayer.com/archives/118#comment-130 Moore's law doesn't apply to anything made of Silicon. Integrated circuits fall in price because Moore said that it would be increasingly possible to shrink transistor sizes, therefore allowing to increase their number per area. And given that the cost of manufacturing integrated circuits relies heavily on the area, the more transistors per area, the cheaper the integrated circuit. Similar advances were made in hard disk technology, cramming more bits per area. Photo-voltaic cells are not made up by Silicon transistors, but by a Silicon film deposited on a surface. Therefore, its area cannot be reduced and its cost is not subjected to Moore's law. As any other new technology, cost reduction of photovoltaic cells will come from larger production volume, but don't count that it'll follow the same pace as disk drives. Moore’s law doesn’t apply to anything made of Silicon. Integrated circuits fall in price because Moore said that it would be increasingly possible to shrink transistor sizes, therefore allowing to increase their number per area. And given that the cost of manufacturing integrated circuits relies heavily on the area, the more transistors per area, the cheaper the integrated circuit. Similar advances were made in hard disk technology, cramming more bits per area.

Photo-voltaic cells are not made up by Silicon transistors, but by a Silicon film deposited on a surface. Therefore, its area cannot be reduced and its cost is not subjected to Moore’s law.

As any other new technology, cost reduction of photovoltaic cells will come from larger production volume, but don’t count that it’ll follow the same pace as disk drives.

]]> By: JOE http://www.joetaxpayer.com/another-sunny-day/comment-page-1/#comment-127 JOE Tue, 18 Mar 2008 20:49:04 +0000 http://www.blog.joetaxpayer.com/archives/118#comment-127 Absolutely, but see my references to Moore's law. If the cost of solar continues to drop on the path it's on, it will soon be cheaper than higher cost energy, and then cheaper than nuclear a few years after. I paid $300 for a 170MB (yes megabyte) drive 15 or so years back. That's $1800 per gigabyte. New drives sell for 25-30 cents per GB. Imagine a day when solar power is 1 cent per KHW during the day, and 5 cents at night. We'll be waiting for storage (battery) technology to catch up. As always, thank for visiting and sharing your thoughts. Joe Absolutely, but see my references to Moore’s law. If the cost of solar continues to drop on the path it’s on, it will soon be cheaper than higher cost energy, and then cheaper than nuclear a few years after. I paid $300 for a 170MB (yes megabyte) drive 15 or so years back. That’s $1800 per gigabyte. New drives sell for 25-30 cents per GB. Imagine a day when solar power is 1 cent per KHW during the day, and 5 cents at night. We’ll be waiting for storage (battery) technology to catch up. As always, thank for visiting and sharing your thoughts.
Joe

]]> By: Augustine http://www.joetaxpayer.com/another-sunny-day/comment-page-1/#comment-126 Augustine Tue, 18 Mar 2008 16:37:03 +0000 http://www.blog.joetaxpayer.com/archives/118#comment-126 However, the initial costs are way too high. 1kW is barely enough to supply energy for a house’s light bulbs, yet they are not that necessary during the day.

Yet, the true high bar is nuclear power, at 6¢ per kWh.

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