Dec 03

Friday’s numbers for unemployment, a drop from 9% to 8.6%, may have seemed good news, but it reflects a decrease in the labor force, over 300,000 people dropping out. Did the recession really end in June 2009?

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Nov 27

Never thought about this as a consequence, but the data tells us it is…..

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Oct 02

Indeed, part of the issue is the Catch-22 we are in, as illustrated above. I know that NBER declared the recession over, but it will still take time for the economy to be robust again.

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Sep 22

The recession lasted 18 months and just as we didn’t know there was a recession until we were well into it, we are now told it ended in June 2009.

I was thinking back to my post last July, Dennis Kneale Recovery in which I remarked that he had declared the bottom was behind us, and it would just take time before it was declared. As you can see, the recession lasted longer the the prior three, and it will take somemore time before we feel that we are in a vibrant recovery. a bit of patience.

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Sep 04

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” This quote is often incorrectly attributed to baseball legend Yogi Berra, but attribution should go to scientist Niels Bohr. This is my longwinded way of saying I am not making a prediction either way, the cartoon just struck my fancy.


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