We are now over 28% above the March 9 bottom in the S&P, one of the best run ups since the depression. A bear rally? Maybe, but obviously, all data appears in hindsight, and only when that bottom is well behind us and we are obviously in a growth cycle, will it be clear. On one hand, Lawrence Summers declared the free fall is likely to end in the next few months, but Thomas Lee chief US equity strategist at JP Morgan Chase is predicting an 8 to 10 percent drop from here.
Rates on 30 year mortgages have dropped to a record low 4.61% and it appears that credit is starting to free up. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae securitized nearly $145B in mortgages in February, a $1.7T annual run rate. That kind of money has to have an impact on the funk we are in. I remain cautious, myself, but guardedly optimistic.