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The Craziest Gold Forecast

Gold is now at $1600 per ounce. I’ve stated before, I believe it’s in bubble territory but there are those who think gold is going higher, not just a bit higher, but to $57,000 per ounce. I don’t want to link to such forecasts,  just google ‘gold to $57,000’ and you’ll find a number of articles on this.

Let’s look at how such a forecast isn’t just absurd, it’s mathematically impossible.

The total wealth in the world is approximately $125 trillion. This number is a few years old, but close enough for our purposes.

The total amount of gold mined to date is approximately 5 billion ounces, or $8 trillion at today’s price. If gold were to go to ‘only’ $25,000 per ounce the value of gold alone would be as much as everything else in the world. All stocks, cash, bonds, real estate, etc. Would it make sense that such a thing could be possible? Yet, these people sound so convincing, one wonders if they believe what they are saying, or if they are just scamming us all. Have they done the math?

  • Tiffany September 30, 2011, 12:33 pm

    I wouldnt say its not possible simply because so many things have happened that in fact SHOULDNT have been possible but those in charge not only allow it but help it. Of course their packets are the ones getting fatter. I only wish I was in a situation to be able to afford gold at the price it is now.

  • Augustine September 30, 2011, 6:26 pm

    As someone who grew up in Brazil and was even paid “millions” every paycheck, I have to remind you about something called inflation, when it’s totally possible for gold to reach not only $57,000, but even $57,000,000.

  • Elle October 1, 2011, 6:29 am

    Also google {Dow 36,000} for the 1999 prognosis of a Dow bubble. It’s from a couple of Ivy League graduates. It got a fair amount of press, too. Maybe the authors of “Dow: 36,000” just figured on making a tidy profit with an absurd book that they masses naturally consumed. This would be smart.

    I think the subject of numerology and financial planning needs much more treatment by the media.

  • JOE October 2, 2011, 8:47 am

    I appreciate the link, great to meet you this weekend.

  • JOE October 3, 2011, 10:51 pm

    The speaker didn’t make any reference to hyperinflation. He implied $57,000 worth $57,000. If gold were word $1,000,000 but rent was $1,000,000 per month, that means the dollar crashed not that gold really rose.

  • cashflowmantra October 4, 2011, 3:09 pm

    I think doing the math and making sense out of the situation is a good idea. It does not seem logical in the current context of life. I wouldn’t say it is impossible, but you are right that the dollar would have collapsed more than gold would have risen.

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