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Bad Market = Good Time to Convert to Roth?

On an internet usenet group misc.invest.financial-plan, I recently commented on a question and I’d like to share this with my readers:

Q: When the stock market is in the toilet, why don’t we hear more recommendations for converting traditional IRA’s to Roths? It’s the perfect time for it because it minimizes your taxes.

A: Because when you do the math, the state of the market is not so relevant. Here’s my thought, illustrated.

You have $10000 in the IRA, and convert to Roth, paying $2500 in tax (out of other funds)
Decades later you have 10X your money, $100,000 in the Roth.

I have $10000, but take the extra $3333 (which is $2500, pretax) and add it to my pretax IRA or 401(k).
Decades later, I have $133,333 which can be $100K after tax (if taxed at 25%)

The conversion has far less to do with the $10K having been $20K last year, and more to do with:
A) current bracket
B) future bracket
C) estate concerns, including kid’s brackets.

It’s usually a good idea to use Roth conversions to “top off” your current bracket, whether while working or in retirement, if you fearing higher marginal rates later on. Multiple discussions I’ve joined on this topic most often end up ignoring the relative value of the portfolio vs recent past.
One other point I’d offer; I’ve discussed the “pre-tax vs post-tax” debate, and one needs to look carefully at their present marginal rate right now compared to their average rate at retirement. Only those who expect to retire with quite a high balance would benefit from the wholesale shifting of funds over to Roth.

Joe

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Money Merge Account Analysis Pt 14

(My Money Merge Analysis Compilation, a PDF containing all of my MMA posts has been updated to be current to post 32).

In the spirit of the exaggerated claims made by the proponents of the money merge account, this is a fictional story. I could easily claim it to be true, a sad tale written to me by an MMA client, but that isn’t my style. With that disclaimer in place, please read on.
MMA agents have for years claimed that a large portion of the saving is due to the HELOC Shuffle. In fact one popular agent’s site states “Because much of the savings of this program come from homeowners repositioning the unused money that they normally do not spend and leave sitting in their standard checking or savings account, little to no lifestyle changes are needed.” (For this post I’m ignoring how anyone can claim that no change in lifestyle is experienced by one who is prompted to sent all their discretionary money to their mortgage. ‘Discretion’ implies choice. If that choice is pulled from me, it’s no longer discretionary money.) So, the premise we are left with is that MMA utilizes the shifting of money between paycheck, HELOC, and bills due to capture some savings.
From a cleverly titled article “When a HELOC freezes over” (among others), I find that more and more banks are reneging on their HELOCs, not extending any further credit. Now for my story:

An MMA client (we’ll call him ‘Steve’) signs up for the program. The classic example almost followed with one minor exception. He has a $200,000 6% mortgage, but instead of $1000 per month discretionary income, he’s closer to just $500. As honest agents warn, you must have some extra funds for this program to work, and $500 should have a nice impact on a mortgage that only had a $1199 monthly payment due. (and the agent rightly projects a 15 yr payoff, saving him $129K in interest). The first thing Steve does after signing up is to log in and see that the $20,000 sitting in his 2% saving account will knock not just 10% of the time off his mortgage, but a full 6 years 9 months, saving him $77K in interest! Wow! He sends this sum from the HELOC to his mortgage, and pays the HELOC back the same day from savings (don’t ask me why – this is just how MMA wants you to do it, so you think the software created all the savings.) He then brags to his friends how he’s beat the system and found the next best thing to the holy grail. He adopts phases such as ‘become our own bank’ and starts to tell his coworkers about “factorial math.”
Then, within the same month, his HELOC is frozen, his furnace needs replacing ($10K) and his son needs braces ($5K). He now has just one place to go, his credit card. Now, at 20% interest, it will take Steve 3.5 years to pay back these expenses. 3.5 years of not being able to pay one cent extra towards his mortgage. With the economy in such dire straights, his raises don’t even keep up with inflation, and his older daughter is looking for the car she was promised when she got her license. From having $23,500 in the bank, Steve now has a snowballing level of high interest debt and no way to tap his own home equity. Is he supposed to sleep better knowing he only has 23 years left on his mortgage?

To add insult to injury, by the time he finds a bank liquid enough to consider offering Steve a new HELOC, his credit score (FICO) has dropped 150 points for the fact that his available credit percent utilized has shot up dramatically, as he’s floating balances greater than 50% of available credit.

As I stated in my introduction, this is fiction. But no greater a fiction than the rosy scenario agents paint of someone who has 20% of their net income available to throw at their mortgage, and leads a life that contains no obstacles for a full decade. Do such people exist? I’m sure some do, but they are not common, and the example most agents offer is quite unrealistic.

Joe

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TV deal reflecting our economy

NBC announced today that in the fall Jay Leno would be on the air at 10PM every weeknight. This strikes me as interesting in two regards; First, Jay comes quite cheaper than the five (or 10 with the summer season) expensive scripted shows that would fill the slot. The downside is the lack of rerun and/or DVD value that series episodes bring. Second, we appear to be running out of imagination as a nation. I’m noticing this in the movie theater as well, with remakes and sequels becoming more and more common. As a country of 300 million plus, do we not have the talent and creativity to launch 15 shows per network per year? In fact, the number would be lower than this as any renewed series is one less new series needed. If programming were good enough to achieve a three year average life, each network would need only 5 new ideas each year. Too bad, we can’t come close to this. The golden age of television appears to be behind us. Indeed, we now have hundreds of channels, but nothing’s on.
Joe

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Time to Refinance?

Mortgage rates have dropped recently, to an average 5.5% fixed rate for a 30 year mortgage.
While there’s talk of the treasury trying to arrange for a 4.5% rate, this rate is only for new home buyers, not refinances. On a $200K mortgage, this would only be a difference in payment of about $120, not quite enough to prompt you to move down the street. But that 5.5% rate may save you a few dollars as well, and offer a chance to get out of the ARM you may have been talked into a few years back.
Joe

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A Christmas Bailout Cartoon

A Christmas Themed Financial Cartoon:

Enjoy the weekend.
Joe

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